Canadians should brace for $1.50 gallon gas prices in the near future as global oil supply will increasingly have trouble keeping pace with demand, forecasts a new energy report from CIBC World Markets.
The report predicts that surging demand in developing economies combined with accelerated depletion of existing supply and widespread delays in getting new oil fields up and running will see the global supply of oil fall as much as eight million barrels a day below U.S. Department of Energy and International Energy Agency estimates by 2012.
As part of its research, CIBC World Markets reviewed nearly 200 new oil projects slated to start production over the next five years and found that scheduled production timelines are far too optimistic, with project delays the norm, not the exception, among the group.
It found that heavy reliance on increasingly high cost and technically challenging fields like the Kashagan project in Kazakhstan, Russia's Sakhalin II and Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands have left world supply growth vulnerable to a seemingly never-ending series of project delays.
Mr. Rubin notes that delays in the Venezuela and Canada will shave over 700,000 barrels a day from earlier 2012 production forecasts. In some nations, soaring development costs have resulted in complex and often tense re- negotiations of royalty agreements with host countries. Some have even led to either a temporary or indefinite suspension of operating licenses.
These project delays are also happening at a time of accelerated global depletion in existing fields. The rate has climbed to over four per cent, which cuts nearly four million barrels per day out of each year's production. The recent increases are in part, related to the growing importance of offshore, and, in particular, deepwater fields, which have depletion rates twice that of conventional fields.
The result of this unchecked soaring demand in most oil-producing nations means they will not be able to add any additional exports to meet the surging demand in developing countries. Since crude demand in countries like China and India is far more income-elastic than price-elastic, these countries are likely to outbid OECD markets for increasingly scarce global supply.
The OECD, the largest global oil market today, is much more price sensitive and oil consumption, which has already fallen over the last two years, will decline by almost four million barrels per day over the next five years in response to steadily rising prices.
The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occtrept65pdf.